The Obama Administration's goal all along was to have a financial reform bill signed into law by July 4. Are we going to make it? My sense is that we will. Of course, the posturing is most intense as deadline approaches.

With the health care reform bill, there was a last-minute deal breaker over federal funding of abortion. With the financial reform bill the final deal breaker seems to be $19 billion in bank fees that apply to large financial institutions. Sen. Scott Brown of Mass. has decided to take up the cause, threatening to withhold his vote. Other moderates also have issues with the fee, and fee supporters will likely have no choice but to get rid of it.

The issue then is how to make up that $19 billion. The fee was added to make the bill deficit neutral in the eyes of the CBO. To maintain that status, the money must be made up elsewhere. "If the tax is removed from the bill, lawmakers may propose tapping the $700 billion bank bailout fund and banks' deposit insurance fees," notes Reuters. My sense is that an agreement is coming, and the law will be filibuster-proof.

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