What's going on with Lehman Brothers?
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Well is it or isn't it?
No sooner than the New York Times could report that Lehman Brothers had sent MOUs to top private equity funds inviting bids for its asset management properties came news of a different sort from JPMorgan analysts. They say Lehman is "unlikely" to sell Neuberger Berman, mainly because of the credit rating implications such a sale would impose. Indeed, asset management accounts for a good deal of the bank's revenue. It may be its most stable asset.
So once again there's uncertainty about what the bank and its embattled CEO Dick Fuld intend to do. It may be that the MOUs were sent merely to gauge interest, or help management value its asset management properties. In any case, the clock is really ticking here. JPMorgan is telling clients that Lehman Brothers will likely write down about $4 billion, notes MarketWatch. That's in line with other estimates, mainly due to valuations of those pesky troubled assets. (Thanks Merrill Lynch!) That would guarantee a loss. Goldman Sachs analyst William Tanona now thinks Lehman Brothers will lose $2.5 to $3.5 billion for the quarter.
One tack would be to announce the writeoff and a capital raise at the same time, to underscore that management has the situation in hand. If earnings are announced sans capital news, that may be taken as a bad sign. You have to assume that Lehman is walking through all possibilities right now. One question is whether that includes selling the whole company. - Jim




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