Was transparency lacking in S&P downgrade decision
Standard & Poor's decision to lower the credit rating of U.S. Treasuries to AA+ from AAA continues to generate criticism. One theme has been a general lack of transparency, a charge that looms larger in light of the $2 trillion methodological error that the agency owned up to right before it announced its downgrade.
The error, which S&P said affected the "out" years, was not material in its decision. But it does raise some questions about how exactly the calculations were made. CNNMoney says this: "Little is known about key details that led Standard & Poor's to downgrade U.S. debt late Friday, despite its out-sized repercussions." It also says that "key details remains a mystery." Unfortunately, the S&P has not said "who, exactly, made the decision at the company; what kind of weight they gave U.S. politics versus ability to pay; or to what extent they felt pressured to downgrade the United States in response to criticism of its downgrades of risky European nations."
The ultimate effect of the downgrade is hard to pin down, as it dovetailed with global economic fears. When a semblance of sanity returns, my guess is that the markets will be able to properly assess the views of S&P against Moody's and Fitch. Meanwhile, the critics are sharpening their knives.
Bill Miller, of Legg Mason fame, has called for the company's NRSRO license to be re-thought. He has called the move "precipitous, wrong, and dangerous. At best, S&P showed a stunning ignorance and complete disregard for the potential consequences of its actions on a fragile global financial system. S&P chose to take this action after the worst week in US equity markets since 2008, a week which not only saw stocks fall sharply, but which also witnessed a dangerous escalation in the ongoing European debt crisis with spreads widening to post- Euro records in systemically-important countries such as Italy and Spain amid general political paralysis. The action was wholly unnecessary and the timing could not have been worse. Compounding this, the reasoning was poor, and consequences both short and long term for the global financial system are completely unpredictable."
To be sure, S&P retains its supporters. Some say that while the problems of S&P as a company are well known, its downgrade nevertheless reflects the reality of the country's budget woes. Just because they got it hideously wrong on all those mortgage-backed securities doesn't necessarily mean they botch their sovereign debt analyses to the same degree.
For more:
- here's the CNNMoney article
- here's Miller's views




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