FICC operations have been weak so far this quarter, and it doesn't look like September offered a meaningful reprieve, which means the third quarter will be pretty lackluster for the top banks. Sequentially, the picture won't be downright horrid, as the second quarter was also weak. Year-over-year, however, the comparison could be harsh.

Analysts have started paring their expectations for the third quarter to reflect the still subdued trading environment. Bloomberg data showing the average earnings estimate for Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have each slipped 2 cents a share in the past month, notes the Financial Times.

The weak activity in trading contrasts with strong investment banking activity in some niches, like bond underwriting. But the trading results, which many banks have grown perhaps overly dependent on, will weigh down the totals. So it's looking more and more like the trading boom of 2009 may have been an aberration.

So what to expect? Analyst Meredith Whitney has told clients the securities industry might cut up to 80,000 jobs over the next year and a half. Ouch.

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