For good reasons, bankers may be sensing a big win in the compensation game for 2011.

Traders' pay would appear to be vulnerable right now. After a middling first quarter, the second quarter was downright horrible at a lot of top banks, including Goldman Sachs. And that will undoubtedly affect traders' bonuses. Many will be lucky to get a bonus at all. At this point, some are pondering whether they will have a job come the end of the year. Fixed income traders will likely be among the hardest hit, according to Johnson Associates (as noted by Reuters), which predicts that this group could face a bonus decline of up to 30 percent. Other traders will also take some lumps.

Meanwhile, the investment bankers have been on a tear as mergers and other transactions have kicked up this year. These bankers will likely get a 5 to 10 percent bump, according to the consulting firm. But the year's not over. The recent market pyrotechnics actually gave the traders a boost, and many are no doubt hoping that the rise in volume continues. Meanwhile, the volatility might hit some deal markets hard. IPOs for example could pause. In any case, the bankers seem to be on a relative upswing right now. Overall, Johnson expects a down year for most executives.

For more:
- here's the Reuters article          

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