We've seen some great earnings reports from Wells Fargo, JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs. We may yet see some more upside surprises. Hope is rising for Morgan Stanley, but there is no reason to conclude that banks have turned a corner, notes Business Week. It points to the refinancing boomlet now underway. Sure, fees have soared as rates have plunged, but the fact remains that many people cannot refinance. They are either underwater or they are jumbo loan holders.

The biggest gains may have already come. At the same time, hedges on mortgage servicing business may have led to temporary gains, and same goes for fair value mark ups. I maintain the biggest wild card is the economy. More loan loss reserves hikes may be in the picture. Not to sound too gloomy, but I would advise against excessive optimism. 

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