Outlook for the top broker dealers

After two years of dazzling performance, the sluggish stock performance of the S&P investment banking and brokerage group is hardly surprising. But the question has to be asked: Will this last all year? S&P's Matthew Albrecht argues that the fundamentals are intact for top broker dealers. It will be a very difficult comparison with 2006 and 2005, but the revenue story is still compelling. M&A advisory fees are rolling. Commodity and credit revenue have offset slower growth in traditional equity and fixed income trading revenue. And there are always some proprietary investments to spice things up. The real issue to me is whether these firms now deserve a higher multiple based on their stellar track record as growth vehicles. Analysts will have to grapple with that. The bullish case will likely depend on such arguments.

For more:
- here's the S&P outlook