Even before the Dodd-Frank bill was passed into law, there's been heavy speculation about which banks would be hit the hardest. There's no way of really knowing because the real shape of reform in a lot of areas--such as the Volcker Rule--will become evident only after many years. Bank lobbyists will have a lot of time to shape the actual rules to their liking. But based on what we know right now, who would the winner be? Morningstar analysts Michael Wong and Jamie Peters vote for Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS).

For one thing, commercial banks may be more vulnerable compared to the investment bank/trading outfits because they have to grapple with credit card reform, which generally takes effect now. The likes of Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo and JPMorgan Chase have a lot on the line when it comes to interchange fees and such, and they are all grappling with ways to offset lost card revenue.

As for the investment banks, it looks like Goldman Sachs has a bit more to lose given its heavy reliance on proprietary trading and principal investments. Add in the fact that Morgan Stanley has pursued some stable business lines that do not appear to be vulnerable to a massive revenue reduction, notably its wealth management business, and it looks like its quite well-positioned to weather the storm.

For more:
- here's an article from TheStreet.com

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