Analysts have been busy paring their estimates of second-quarter profits for Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) and other banks. But for sheer magnitude, few of the cuts rival that of Barclays Capital analyst Roger Freeman. According to Fortune, he reduced his forecast for Goldman Sachs from $5.35, a full dollar above the consensus estimate, to $1.95, which is about half the consensus.

The reasons are pretty much the same as everyone else's. The bank faces a big hit from the U.K. bank tax. The bigger concern is a much weaker outlook for trading in the bank's vaunted FICC (fixed income, commodities and currencies) unit. Trading of course has powered Goldman to a post-crash earnings surge. While everyone knew it couldn't last, some thought it would last a bit longer. Freeman predicts revenue in that unit will drop 40 percent, reflecting in part the Greek crisis.

The good news is that when expectations plunge, the chances of an upside surprise go up. As for Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), Freeman lowered his estimate to 55 cents a share from 77 cents a share.

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