Look to 1998 for clues on bank revenue woes?

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If you're an old pro on Wall Street, the current turmoil is not that new. Standard & Poor's notes some similarities between now and 1998. The subprime mortgage woes in some ways recall the Asian and Russian crises of the late 1990s--Lots of volatility. Lots of speculation about banks and funds on the brink. Lots of public official hand-wringing. But at least there hasn't been a bailout of LTCM magnitude. For the top broker-dealers, aggregate revenues from the securities businesses in the fourth quarter of 1998 fell 40 percent, the analysts note. Goldman Sachs was the hardest hit. Can we expect a repeat? S&P says its "stress tests" indicate nearly 50 percent decline in revenues in the second half of 2007 compared with the first half, with the third quarter being the hardest hit. Stay tuned.  

For more:
- here's the Business Week article