The conventional wisdom was that lingering tough times, especially in the trading environment, would result in a new wave of layoffs in early 2011. The Barclays news seemed to confirm as much. But then came JPMorgan Chase's fourth quarter and annual results, which surprised on the upside.

The bank posted $4.8 billion in earnings in the fourth quarter, or $1.12 a share. That significantly beat analysts' consensus estimates of 99 cents a share. As for revenue, the bank generated $26.7 billion in the fourth quarter vs. $25.2 billion a year ago.

As expected, deal advisory activity was strong, while trading was weak. Big news was an upturn in the retail units, which reported income of $708 million vs. a loss of $399 million.

The bank, this quarter, put aside $2.5 billion to cover credit losses--$1.8 billion less than it allocated in the same period in 2009. The bank also put aside another $1.5 billion for litigation costs.

Mortgage origination was strong, though bad credits continue to weigh on results. Income from commercial banking also accelerated.

The really big news was CEO Jamie Dimon's announcement that the bank might hike its annual dividend to the 75 cents-$1 range, up from 20 cents.

So, if we were to generalize these results to the others coming this week and next, we'd have to say things are looking very rosy for those with strong retail business lines.

For more:
- here's a MarketWatch article
- here's the release

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