Making to the top of the hedge fund (hedge fund news) heap is one thing. Staying there is quite another. So what to make of John Paulson (John Paulson news), who rode a massive bearish bet on mortgages to fame and fortune. Was he just lucky? We're about to find out.

We've noted that he's having a tough time this year. His funds--Paulson & Co. Recovery fund and the flagship Paulson & Co. Advantage fund--have been tested this year, and most are taking a beating. Only his gold fund seems to be faring well. Other hedge funds are in the same situation. But John Paulson will get an outsized share of scrutiny.

So the questions is can he stay on top? Here's one take from Fortune: "Is John Paulson about to morph from being the most celebrated hedge fund manager of his time to being the poster boy of that oft-repeated warning--that past performance offers no indication of future results? It's hard to see how this is going to work out any other way."

One issue is that his funds constitute a $30 billion behemoth. That alone suggests mediocrity is inevitable. This one will be closely watched. Is Paulson another George Soros or a one-time wonder?

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