Job cuts coming--but when?

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For months now, the conventional wisdom on Wall Street has been that major staff reductions are coming. By one estimate, Wall Street firms will generate $180 billion in revenue for the first six months of 2011, 10 percent less than in the comparable period a year ago.

The secular trend seems downward right now, and many banks are girding to do more with less. And that means layoffs. To some this is rather cruel, as banks boosted salaries to get around bonus restrictions, which left them with higher costs. But they will not likely be shy about slashing costs. At many firms, stealth cuts may already have started.

The Wall Street Journal has weighed in with a look at jobs activity at Goldman Sachs, Credit Suisse, Barclays and others. For those that survive, the result may be more work, a smaller bonus and lingering uncertainty. At a time like this, it's hard to get anything done. People are hyper aware of who goes into who's office. Hallway conversations are hushed. The butt-kissing goes into overdrive.

In the end, it's unclear what can save you except a direct, positive impact on the P&L. The expected cuts mark a double dip that's truly unfortunate. There are some people who survived the brutal cuts in the aftermath of the financial crisis only to have to live through the uncertainty all over again. They may not be so lucky this time around.

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