Industry hangs in the balance: Whitney vs. Bove
In times such as these, new stars are born.
Two of the brightest stars right now are Meredith Whitney of Oppenheimer and Richard Bove of Ladenburg Thalmann. There are some other highly respected analysts, like Michael Mayo of Deutsche Bank and Guy Moszkowski of Merrill Lynch. But in terms of star appeal, Whitney and Bove have soared to prominence on the back of the credit crunch. Whitney now graces the cover of Fortune with some celebrity-like photos. One seems to have a zebra skin in the background. Bove was just given a flattering profile in the New York Times.
While both proved prescient in calling the current crisis, they are an interesting study in contrasts. Whitney is just 38--and glamorous (married to a wrestling star) to. Bove is 67--and crusty. She works in Manhattan. He works in Florida. She's an insider who can demand one-on-one meetings with C-level execs. Bove is more of an outsider looking in.
They really differ on the near-term future of the industry. Bove remains negative on most investment banks, but he thinks the top commercial banks may have turned the corner. He thinks that bank valuations have turned favorable and enough capital has been raised to justify some buy recommendations. Whitney on the other hand thinks buying now would amount to a sucker's bet. She thinks that top banks have still another leg to drop and that their liquidity woes are far from over as the pace of downgrades picks up and the credit crisis infects more asset classes. The economy is certainly not going to help matters.
So who's right? -Jim




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