Holiday job environment stings for would-be bankers

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The more things change, the more they seem to stay the same. Wall Street has shown itself to be on a boom bust cycle for decades. There have always been fantastic bull markets that captured the public imagination only to be followed by severe bull markets, to which fin de siècle significance was always attached.

Just recently, the amplitude of the curve hasn't really changed so much as the frequency with which the cycles occur. It sure feels like we're in a double dip right now, and a recent New York Times piece duly features a few people who have been laid off twice in fairly short order. Many people are suffering through lay-off anxiety all over again.

In some ways, the Times is right in that young people seem to have borne the brunt.

"The number of investment bank and brokerage firm employees between the ages 20 and 34 fell by 25 percent from the third quarter of 2008 to the same period of 2011, a loss of 110,000 jobs from layoffs, attrition and voluntary departures. By comparison, industry headcount dropped by 17 percent in the same period...The number of staff members over the age of 55 decreased by only 11 percent."

But the young ought to be able to adapt fairly quickly. They are young after all. The real brunt is born by those with children and nonworking spouses, who are again facing calamity. We can only hope that they've been preparing for this moment. In the end, as always, people will find a way to survive, but their lives may end up being radically different than what they envisioned. The last time we went through this, we tried to highlight people who transitioned their careers--by force or by choice--and ended up much happier. In this holiday season, there is little choice but to be anything but optimistic, which can be difficult at a time like this.

But if you've been around this industry long enough, there's one thing that you can count on, which is this: The good times will roll again. Some think the jobs that have been lost will not be coming back anytime soon. That's undoubtedly true. But new products will emerge, and new services too. Innovation will continue at all levels, from retail banking to derivatives trading. And that will create new jobs. And a new boom, which will undoubtedly be followed by a bust.   -Jim

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