The conventional wisdom on Wall Street is that the top banks are looking to pare staff to restrain expenses in the face continuing weak revenues. Meredith Whitney, among others, has been predicting as much. We certainly expect to see more of this, perhaps in stealth mode.

But Breakingviews suggests that while general paring is going on, a very selective hiring boom may get underway. The idea is that rainmakers--and there aren't that many of them--will find themselves in high demand, high enough that they can dictate some lucrative terms. The pressure will be great, as these new hires will be expected to make a meaningful difference almost immediately.

One area where this might occur is in mergers and acquisition. The outlook for deals appears strong, and deal advisory revenue could be one of the bright spots in a mediocre year. Investment bankers of this ilk will find themselves in strong position, as long as they can convince people they can bring deals with them.

The costs of hiring best-of-breed executives and bankers will likely soar. So, some bidding wars may be at hand, suggests Breakingviews. You can see something similar happening on a smaller scale in the investment advisory business, where big-book brokers and advisors are being courted aggressively.

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