There are some cynics out there who might conclude that Goldman Sachs' (GS) bearish take on regional banks and insurance, with lots of commercial exposure, suggests that the company's traders might be short on these stocks. Whether that's true or not is anyone's guess, though the analysts who advised investors to be careful of these banks can make a strong case.

Goldman expects $287 billion in losses on commercial real estate and construction loans, reports Reuters. "Just like in residential, we expect losses will be high and come on a two-to-three year lag from the market peak, which translates to (the second half of 2009 and through 2010)."

So we may be heading into a tough period for banks that are heavily exposed. The big winners may be consumer-focused, large banks, the analysts note. It's more bullish on the likes of Bank of America (BAC) and JPMorgan (JPM) than some large regional banks.

For more:
- here's the article

Related Articles:
Goldman Sachs' hedges to pay off?
Senator's advice for Goldman Sachs
Goldman Sachs' view on short selling
Video: Goldman on the offensive