Goldman Sachs, short-term winner or loser?

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Citigroup (NYSE: C) analysts have come out with a list of the banks that are "most exposed" to the on-going financial reform effort, which should be culminating soon. Assuming the Volcker Rule and some form of the Blanche Lincoln rule pass, the most exposed would appear to be Goldman Sachs, followed by Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan and Bank of America.

That said, the analysts think that Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) remains a good deal for stock pickers. Barron's notes that Goldman Sachs' current stock price is just 1 times tangible book value, as of the end of this year. Thus it might make an "excellent entry point" for "purchasing a world-class franchise."

Short-term credit trends could also be working in the banks' favor. My sense is that once the bill is finalized, the world will get a cleaner view of how the industry stands to be effected. But even then, there will be some big issues yet to be resolved, notes CNBC. "Under one form of the bill, regulators can determine 'reasonable and proportional' fees that can be charged for debit cards. Regulators have nine months to determine what the rates will be, but how do you define the terms? Regulators will decide much of the language."

Another example from CNBC: "What is prop trading? The stronger form of the Volcker Rule would prohibit proprietary trading, but how do you define that term? When is client facilitation prop trading? Regulators would decide." 

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