Morgan Stanley's average VAR in the second quarter rose to $145 million from $121 million in the first quarter, a 20 percent bump. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs was moving in the opposite direction, reducing the amount it was willing to risk in the face of global economic uncertainty.

The gilded bank's average daily VAR was $101 million in the second quarter, down 11 percent from the previous quarter--and the lowest level it has been since the second quarter of 2006. JPMorgan's VAR fell 9.5 percent to $58 million. Much has been made of these VAR movements, especially as a way to explain the strong trading performance of Morgan Stanley and the weak performance of Goldman Sachs. But will that change for the third quarter?

According to TheStreet.com, Morgan Stanley took down risk to $129 million at the end of the quarter, as it was only in June that its clients really turned jittery. CFO Ruth Porat said, "I think our view very much across the franchise is that what clients expect of us is content, with a point of view and that we put balance sheet and risk around that to facilitate trading where it makes sense. And I think in particular, in times like this, they are looking for a point of view, and that's what our team is very much focused on."

My sense is that it would be unwise to put out a lot of content recommending wild bets to profit from the global uncertainty. We should probably count on VARs staying low across the board. But you never know. A lot will come down to the "content" delivered in terms of fixed income. This will again be in the spotlight when third quarter results are released. Morgan Stanley had a fine second quarter, but doing it quarter after quarter is a whole other ballgame.

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