The private equity industry is at a crossroads. There's nothing new about that assertion. TheDeal.com offers an interesting look at where the industry goes from here. Some think the future is golden, in part because the industry is sitting on $470 billion in committed but un-invested capital, according to McKinsey & Co. At the same time, the portfolio possibilities seem decent--capital needs are high and valuations are low.

Unfortunately, from 2012 to 2014, about $430 billion of senior debt will come due. Unless the leveraged loan market revives (not likely), a wave of defaults "could wipe out much of the equity the buyout industry wagered on scores of deals. Most problematic are the 55 megadeals that range up to $45 billion. Private equity firms will have to find a way to grind it out, while they seek other opportunities, like distressed investing.  

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