The new lower interchange fees are scheduled to go into effect Oct. 1, and in the final days of the old order, we are seeing some interesting moves. Bank of America generated big headlines for its announcement that it would be imposing a new $5 monthly debit card transactions fee, which will likely spark a rush of other banks to do the same. Wells Fargo and JP Morgan Chase have already experimented with the idea, which in the minds of many was merely a prelude to a permanent fee hike nationwide. Regional banks have also moved to such fees.

The Bank of America development capped a period during which lots of banks ratcheted back their debit card rewards programs and their free checking account programs. The whole industry embarked on a grand search for higher fees, arguing essentially that bank shareholders deserved as much.

So what has all this wrought? Who has emerged as the big winner?

My sense is that banks will not ultimately be made worse off. They have every right to seek offsets to the loss of revenue, even if that means charging fees in other areas to consumers. We are seeing this now, for better or worse. While there will be some short-term damage to the revenue generating ability of banks, I have no doubt the industry's smart fee engineers will figure out how to recoup the lost revenue and more. We're already seeing some interesting experiments. Some quite credible banks, for example, are rolling out direct deposit short term loans programs that are only slightly better than payday lender services. Critics have called the rates nothing short of usurious. Banks are also tinkering with ways to Groupon-ize online bank statements, a concept that shows lots of promise.

As for bank customers, they might be able to escape the higher debit card and checking account fees by moving to credit unions and smaller banks, some of which sense opportunity. Bigger banks will have to be wise. They have to extract more fees but not so much that they spark a flight to lower cost financial service providers.

The ostensible winners so far look to be the merchants, which fought hard for the Durbin Amendment and have been celebrating since the Fed cut the fees. My sense, however, given these troubled times is that we're not about to see retailers cut prices. The theory all along was that lower interchange fees would allow them to do just that, but no one can force them to lower prices. Then again, not all retailers will win. Some interchange fees will actually go up. The new caps will actually mean an increase for some retail groups, such as those that specialize in small-ticket items, convenience stores and the like.

There will be plenty of retailers who reap the benefits of paying lower fees while maintaining current prices. In the end, the retailers outmaneuvered the financial services industry in Washington and won a major cost reduction, one that unfortunately is now being passed on to consumers by weakened banks. -Jim