Earnings have been soaring at top banks, boosting the optimism of investors. But a new issue is cropping up that has big implications for fourth-quarter earnings. Debt volume tanked in the quarter, and that undoubtedly will hit the bottom line. It's becoming clear that a quick rebound isn't likely.

According to Reuters, the move by some banks to a December year end has enhanced the volume decline. With more banks on a December year-end schedule, more were clearing books at the end of the year. There's no cause for alarm right now. But more analysts are paring estimates. Most of the downgrade activity has been for the biggest dealers, including Goldman Sachs (GS). Morgan Stanley (MS) on the other hand has earned a few upgrades for other reasons. Concerns are mounting, and we may see more activity ahead of results.

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