We noted recently that ubiquitous analyst Richard Bove of Punk Ziegel has pronounced the credit crisis over. It seems more people are starting to agree. There will be more writedowns ahead, but the likelihood of major Bear Stearns-like pain now seems slim. A good indication is the reaction to the news that UBS would take $19 billion in writedowns and Deutsche Bank would take nearly $4 billion. The market rallied on the news. Not so long ago, such news would have prompted more anxiety. Another positive indication is all of the regulatory activity going on. The talk now is more about long-term solutions. That said, first quarter earnings may hold some surprises, but it's probably safe to say the surprises will not be major. They could potentially even be upside surprises. -Jim