The bank industry continues to chafe under the Durbin Amendment, leading to lots of angst as to how the lost swipe fees will be offset.

Especially at this time of year, perhaps the industry should pause to give thanks that the effects of swipe fee legislation weren't even worse. We tend to forget that way back before Dodd-Frank was conceived, the forces behind interchange fee reform--led by retailers--were bent on reforming credit card interchange fees along with debit card fees. Had that happened, the effect on the bank industry would have been even more seismic. It boggles the mind to think what would've happened if interchange fees for credit card swipes would have been reduced in lock step.

The industry dodged a bullet, to be sure. And that may prove to be very significant financially going forward. Given the Durbin Amendment and the failed attempt to impose debit card fees, the bank industry is desperate for new sources of fee revenue. These sources will be hard to develop, but banks may get a boost from the still-intact credit card interchange fees.

Banks now have every reason to push customer back to credit cards, which were out of vogue for a while, and that effort may be bearing fruit.

According to First Data, credit card-enabled purchases rose 10.6 percent in the third quarter, up from 9 percent in the second quarter. The fourth quarter will see an even larger increase, given the strong Black Friday as payments with credit cards on that day rose 7.4 percent from a year earlier. That nearly doubled the increase in debit-card usage.

We fully expect banks to keep pounding away at incentives. When it comes to credit cards, rewards programs are alive and well. Credit cards remains fabulously profitable for banks. Interest rate have always been relatively high, and the interchange fee remains at an average 1.5 to 2 percent per transaction. Debit card fees are now capped at about 21 cents per transaction.

That said, a big fight looms--one that could make the Durbin Amendment battle look tame by comparison. The retail industry has signaled its intent to continue its war on interchange fees, aiming squarely at credit cards. It remains to be seen if a core group of Congressman will take up the battle. But you can bet the financial services industry will go all out to prevent another Durbin Amendment, one aimed to preserved an even larger chunk of revenue.

The battle will be epic. Calling it "Card-mageddon" may be an understatement. -Jim