Basel III makes stress tests hard to pass
We noted recently that banks were yearning to boost dividends again, to get their stock prices moving north. The Federal Reserve Board is okay with that as long as they pass a new round of Treasury stress tests, which strikes us as a wise move. One of the biggest stress points is how well positioned individual banks are to comply with the new Basel III capital requirements. This could prove tricky.
A new report from Barclays suggests that U.S. banks will be short of between $100 billion and $150 billion in capital after the new Basel III global bank regulations take effect, notes the Financial Times. About 90 percent of the shortfall will be born by the top six banks. The report assumes the banks will need to hold top-quality capital equal to 8 percent of their total assets, adjusted for risk. That's 1 point higher than the minimum set by the Basel III guidelines, to allow a cushion.
Banks are certainly on track to complying over the allotted time period. But the equation gets a little trickier when you factor in plans to boost dividends. The reality is that earnings may be hard to come by, and asset sales will only get you so far at this point. We're not sure massive dividend hikes are a sure shot.
For more:
- here's the article
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