We've had so many positive reports from analysts as of late, that one could be forgiven for thinking that the near-term outlook is favorable. In fact, big banks are looking at a very tough fourth quarter. Whether it will be so tough that people will question the moves to repay TARP funds is another issue. Still, the losses are surprisingly large.

According to CNNMoney, Bank of America (BAC) is expected to post a loss of $3.7 billion in the quarter, the biggest since the financial crisis set in. Not to be outdone, Citigroup (C) is expected to lose $6.4 billion in the fourth quarter. Wells Fargo (WFC) will be profitable, but just barely. Of course the TARP repayment charges really cut into earnings at all three. But that doesn't tell the whole story. I'm not sure we can count on a quick rebound, without a lot of help from the economy.

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