How much does Bank of America have to lose before it will be forced to issue common shares? That's a fair question right now, one that analysts are starting to ask.

Deal Journal notes the views of JMP Securities analysts, who told clients that they estimate that the bank would have to lose $100 billion on mortgages before the capital raise would become a reality.

"It does say $100 billion is ‘improbable, but $50 billion is ‘quite possible' and would cause more confidence issues and trouble because the markets are likely to pressure Bank of America into a capital raise at $50 billion, even if it's not needed."

That's really the big issue here. Confidence is everything. My sense is that the bank will not have a lot of trouble staying within the Basel III targets. But if the stock continues to dwindle, the pressure will certainly rise. Short sellers in reality matter a lot. If the confidence crisis is extreme, the results could be catastrophic, though we are a long way from that. No one thinks a consumer run on the bank is in the offing.

Corporate clients represent a slightly elevated danger. If the stock plunges dramatically, prime brokerage customers will start to get edgy. If they start pulling funds en masse, that could spread to corporate customers. But well before that happens, we would expect a capital raise. Let's hope it never gets to that.

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