When will deal volume turn up?

Investment bankers tend to be an optimistic lot, convinced that the next big deal is right around the corner. There's hope but not a whole lot more right now. Sure, we've seen some big pharmaceutical deals--Pfizer and Wyeth, Merck and Schering Plough--and the financing situation may have marginally improved.

But on the whole, the numbers tell the story: M&A volume domestically was down 45 percent in the first half of the year, while global volume fell 35 percent, according to Dealogic data. But bankers are as busy as ever. Business Week says there lots of activity just below the surface. My sense is that strategic buyers might pounce soon, with private equity firms sidelined and valuations attractive.

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